No One Can Predict the Stock Market...
... Including me. When I first became an investment advisor thirty years ago, I actually had a brochure with that slogan on the cover. I hadn't been in the business very long but I already knew it was true. I had become a believer in what is known as "the efficient market theory," which basically says that all publically known information is already reflected in the current price of every stock. Almost forty years in the business have, if anything, solidified that belief. And yet millions of people search for the advisor, mutual fund manager, or newsletter that can consistently "beat the market." And there have been many "Wall Street Gurus" over those forty years who built track records that, at least for a season, seemed to indicate that they could "beat the market." Let me explain what I think causes this. Imagine that there are 100 people sitting around a very large poker table, all of equal poker playing ability. If we play for one ...